Super Typhoon JULIAN (KRATHON) Advisory No. 08

48-hr Outlook: Typhoon JULIAN is forecast to track north-northwest to north over the next 24 hours, briefly exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) before re-entering late Wednesday afternoon (October 2). The storm is projected to move northeastward, making landfall over Southwestern Taiwan by early Thursday morning (October 3) as a Category 1 typhoon.

The typhoon’s eastern and southeastern rainbands are expected to clear the Batanes-Calayan Islands and Ilocos Region by tomorrow afternoon or evening (October 2).

• Location of Center/Eye: Over Westernmost Part of the Bashi Channel (near 20.6°N 119.8°E)
• Distance 1:  230 km west of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 2:  215 km west of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 3:  280 km north-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte

• None

• Batanes & Calayan Group of Islands & Ilocos Provinces ~ Today.

Damaging Winds  (3-sec. wind gusts of >100 km/hr expected):

• None.

• Across the coastal and beachfront areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands.

+Waves of 3 meters or more in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  or at the PDF version of the latest PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin for more details.

• WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving slowly northward while just outside of the PAR…starts to weakens to below super typhoon threshold…about 130 km SSW of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan  [2AM Oct 02: 21.6°N 119.7°E @ 215-260 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM.
• THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Re-enters PAR on a northeasterly direction and makes landfall over Southwestern Taiwan, weakens to a minimal typhoon (Cat 1)…about 20 km N of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan  [2AM Oct 03: 22.8°N 120.3°E @ 140-165 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW.
• FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Rapidly weakens into a Tropical Storm due to its interaction with the mountains of Taiwan, moving NE slowly…about 90 km NNE of Taitung City, Taiwan  [2AM Oct 04: 23.5°N 121.4°E @ 95-120 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 800 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  925 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Large (1,005 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,000 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  155 km outward from the center.