Typhoon JULIAN (KRATHON) Advisory No. 07

48-hr Outlook: Typhoon JULIAN is forecasted to move west to west-northwest over the next 24 hours, temporarily exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) before re-entering on Wednesday afternoon (Oct 2). It is expected to take a poleward path toward Southern Taiwan, where it will begin to weaken due to the island’s rugged terrain. The typhoon’s southern rainbands are projected to leave Western Cagayan and northern parts of the Ilocos Region, including Kalinga and Apayao, by tomorrow (Oct 1).

• Location of Center/Eye: Over Western Part of the Bashi Channel (near 20.5°N 120.8°E)
• Distance 1:  115 km west-southwest of Itbayat, Batanes
• Distance 2:  150 km north-northwest of Calayan Island, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  255 km north of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte

• None

• Batanes & Babuyan Group of Islands, Ilocos Provinces, Abra, Kalinga, Apayao, & Western Cagayan ~ Tonight.

Damaging Winds (gusts of >100 km/hr expected):

• Batanes & Babuyan Group of Islands ~ Tonight.

• Across the coastal and beachfront areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands.

+Waves of 3 meters or more in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  or at the PDF version of the latest PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin for more details.

• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Begins to turn northward while along the western edge of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…starts to weaken…about 190 km W of Itbayat, Batanes  [2PM Oct 01: 20.7°N 120.0°E @ 215-260 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH.
• WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Continues losing strength as it re-enters the PAR after moving our briefly…weakens to Category 3 as it approaches Southern Taiwan…accelerating NNE…about 95 km SSW of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan  [2PM Oct 02: 21.8°N 120.1°E @ 185-230 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM.
• THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Starting to emerge in the vicinity of Hualien City after traversing Southern Taiwan, rapidly weakens into a Category 1 typhoon…about 105 km East of Taichung City, Taiwan  [2PM Oct 03: 24.1°N 121.7°E @ 140-165 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 800 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  935 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Large (1,020 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,000 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  150 km outward from the center.