Typhoon GORING (SAOLA) Advisory No. 07

48-hr Outlook: TY GORING is forecast to move eastward slowly away from the coastal waters of Isabela today until early tomorrow morning. A temporary weakening trend of this typhoon is expected due to Upwelling and possible Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC) within the next 2 days. By early Tuesday morning, Goring is forecast to move northward and re-intensify back to near-Super Typhoon intensity of 230 km/hr.

The presence of TY GORING will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Luzon this weekend through early next week.  Isolated, Scattered to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and Severe Thunderstorms will be expected along these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Near the coastal waters of Eastern Isabela  (near 17.0°N 123.0°E)
• Distance 1:  65 km northeast of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 2:  190 km south-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  340 km northeast of Metro Manila, NCR

• None

• Northern & Eastern Cagayan, Eastern Isabela, Northern Aurora ~ Today. 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Eastern Isabela ~ Today.

• Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Isabela & Cagayan.

+Waves of 3 meters or more in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Category 3 Typhoon as it encounters upwelling and possible Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC), while moving slowly Eastward across the Philippine Sea, away from the coastal waters of Eastern Isabela…about 225 km E of Palanan, Isabela [2AM Aug 28: 16.9°N 124.5°E @ 195-240 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to move on a NNE to Northward track across the Philippine Sea, far from the coastal waters of Northern Cagayan-Babuyan Islands Area. Reintensifies back to Category 4, at near-Super Typhoon class…about 295 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2AM Aug 29: 18.9°N 124.9°E @ 230-280 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Super Typhoon after completing its counterclockwise motion. Starts to move to the NW towards Batanes-Taiwan Area…about 140 km ENE of Basco, Batanes [2AM Aug 30: 21.0°N 123.2°E @ 240-300 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (480 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (445 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  70 km outward from the center.