Typhoon GORING (SAOLA) Advisory No. 06

48-hr Outlook: TY GORING is forecast to move south to southeastward slowly very near the coastal waters of Isabela tonight until tomorrow, Sunday (Aug 27). Rapid Intensification (RI) remains possible within the next 24 hours, as GORING will begin to turn east to northeast while moving along the open waters of the Philippine Sea on Monday (Aug 28). Its wind intensity is likely to reach 220 kph (Category 4) as it continues to move across favorable atmospheric and ocean conditions.

The presence of TY GORING + its Trough will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Luzon this weekend through early next week.  Isolated, Scattered to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and Severe Thunderstorms will be expected along these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Near the coastal waters of Isabela & Eastern Cagayan  (near 17.8°N 123.1°E)
• Distance 1:  115 km northeast of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 2:  125 km southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  205 km north-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora

• None

• Northern & Eastern Cagayan, Eastern Isabela ~ Tonight through Sunday Afternoon (Aug 27). 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Northern & Eastern Cagayan, Eastern Isabela ~ Tonight through Sunday Morning (Aug 27).

• Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Extreme Northern & Eastern Luzon.

+Waves of 3 meters or more in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens further to Near-Super Typhoon Class, while moving slowly S to SE-ward, near the coastal waters of Eastern Isabela…about 140 km ESE of Palanan, Isabela [2PM Aug 27: 16.7°N 123.7°E @ 215-260 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• MONDAY AFTERNOON: Starts to move counterclockwise on an E to ENE track across the Philippine Sea, away from the coastal waters of Eastern Isabela…about 275 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela [2PM Aug 28: 17.6°N 124.9°E @ 215-260 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies slightly after completing its counterclockwise motion (NNE-N-NNW) across the Philippine Sea, well to the east of Batanes Group…about 285 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM Aug 29: 19.6°N 124.6°E @ 205-250 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 953 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (435 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (445 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  70 km outward from the center.