Tropical Depression PAENG Advisory No. 01

24-hr Outlook: TD PAENG is forecast to slowly intensify over the Central Philippine Sea while moving west, with a decreased forward speed of 14 km/hr. It is likely to become a Tropical Storm (TS) by tomorrow afternoon. 

The depression’s Trough together with the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and Shear Line will bring occasional rains with severe thunderstorms & gusty winds across Northern & Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region, Visayas, Sulu Archipelago, and Palawan today and tomorrow.  The risk of floods and landslides is at medium to high. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 12.7°N 133.4°E)
• Distance 1:  952 km east of Catarman, Northern Samar
• Distance 2: 1,002 km east of Virac, Catanduanes
• Distance 3: 1,110 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur

• Along Isabela-Cagayan Area on Sunday Afternoon (Oct 30), between 2 to 5 AM with Low Strike Probability of 30%.

• None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None.

• None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a TS while moving westward across the Central Philippine Sea…about 730 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM Oct 27: 12.3°N 130.8°E @ 65 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW
• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Rapidly becomes a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it starting to WNW towards the coastal waters of Bicol Region…about 487 km E of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM Oct 28: 13.8°N 128.7°E @ 100 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW
• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Passing near the coastal waters of Northern Bicol Region, becomes a Category 1 Typhoon while moving WNW…about 187 km NNE of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM Oct 29: 15.1°N 125.0°E @ 120 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (610 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —