Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 93W StormWatch No. 01

A broad area of low pressure located over the eastern part of the Philippine Sea has shown signs of consolidation and could become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours.  The LPA known as Tropical Disturbance “93W” is currently a subject of  interest for possible threat to Luzon this coming weekend. 

This disturbance is not yet affecting any part of the country. However, it will start enhancing the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) across Luzon in the coming days.

• Location of Center: Along the southeastern portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 11.3°N 132.8°E)
• Distance 1: 773 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
• Distance 2: 969 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes
• Distance 3: 1,074  km east-southeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur

• Global Typhoon Forecast Models (GTFM) are showing rapid development of this disturbance through the next 24 to 48 hours as it moves erratically along the Philippine Sea, becoming a Tropical Storm (TS) in 48 hours.
• The 3 to 4 Day Forecast shows the disturbance maintaining its rapid intensification, becoming a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) or a Typhoon (TY) on Friday & Saturday (Oct 28-29) as it accelerates northwestward across the Central Philippine Sea.  However, this forecast is currently at MEDIUM to LOW confidence (<50% chance).
• No direct effects will be expected from this disturbance within the next three (3) days.
• Once PAGASA upgrades this LPA into a Tropical Depression (TD), it will be named locally as “PAENG”.

Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.